| The
Standard & Poor’s / Investortools Municipal Bond Indices |
| Changing
the Deletion Criteria |
| INTRODUCTION |
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On December 4, 2002
The Standard & Poor's / Investortools Municipal Bond Indices for
the month of November 2002 will be produced using modified deletion
criteria. Specifically, The Index Portfolio will no longer contain
bonds that were not held in mutual fund portfolios priced by Standard
& Poor’s at the time The Index is being calculated.
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The Standard &
Poor’s / Investortools Municipal Bond Index Portfolio (The Main
Index Portfolio) was constructed in December 1998 and introduced
as the JJ Kenny PERFORM Index in June 1999. Since its introduction,
the index has undergone a name change and been expanded to include
34 indices which are composed of subsets of The Main Index Portfolio.
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The Standard &
Poor’s / Investortools Municipal Bond Indices have been designed
to accommodate the need of managed municipal bond funds for more
appropriate benchmarks. The opinions of users and prospective
users have been and will continue to be the basis for the continued
development of this project. It is this industry feedback that
provides the basis for the decision to change the bond deletion
criteria of The Main Index Portfolio.
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| BACKGROUND |
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The Main Index Portfolio
is comprised of bonds that are held in the portfolios of those
managed municipal bond funds that are priced by Standard &
Poors. The monthly total returns of the portfolio are derived
from beginning and end of month prices provided by Standard &
Poor’s. Total return represents changes in market value as well
as the portfolio’s periodic income. Using this same process, sector
and state indices are derived from subsets of The Main Index Portfolio.
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At present, Standard
& Poor’s prices approximately 65% of all independently priced
managed municipal bond funds for NAV calculations. The majority
of the remaining bond funds receive Standard & Poor’s pricing
either daily or weekly from Standard & Poor’s for backup pricing
or for pricing audits. The Main Index Portfolio contains 54,687
bonds (Oct.-2002.) Market weighting is achieved by using the total
par value outstanding for each bond multiplied by the market value
per bond. The average growth since inception has been 416 additional
bonds per month. One reason for this rate of growth is the limited
deletion criteria applied to The Main Index Portfolio. Specifically,
the portfolio is rebalanced monthly, component instruments are
redescribed, qualifying new bonds are added and bonds that mature
or are to be called within one month are removed. Bonds whose
total outstanding par value falls below $2,000,000 are also removed.
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Notably missing from
this deletion criteria are those bonds that are no longer held
by any of The Main Index's component fund portfolios. Originally,
the reason for leaving these bonds in The Index was a desire to
prevent bonds from leaving and then returning to The Index thereby
achieving a more stable portfolio. It has become clear however,
that a more representative index is achievable by deleting bonds
that are no longer held in municipal bond fund portfolios Standard
& Poor’s is asked to price.
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| SPECIFICS |
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The analysis of the
proposed change to index deletion criteria was performed on The
Main Index Portfolio and on 32 state and sector sub-indices. The
historical results of the 16 months were compared to results generated
by deleting those bonds from each portfolio that were not held
by any portfolios at the time. The new deletion criteria reduced
The Main Index Portfolio's size to 42,713 bonds as of Oct. 2002.
This was a reduction in size of 11,974 bonds. The average monthly
growth in the portfolio since it's inception was reduced to 138
bonds per month.
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The cumulative total
return for The Main Index for the 16 month period was 1.6 basis
points (bps) lower using the new deletion process. For 29 of the
33 indices observed, the averages of the monthly differences in
total return was less than +/- 1 bps. The average monthly difference
in total return was 3 bps higher for Virginia and 2 bps lower
for Texas, when the deleted bonds were excluded, while the average
total return shift for the transportation and high yield indices
were 5 bps higher and 2 bps lower, respectively. More significantly,
deleting "not held" bonds produced average durations that were
longer for The Main Index by .10 years and with the exception
of three sub indices were longer for all indices in the portfolio.
One of the anticipated effects of this new deletion policy is
that this increase in duration for more conventionally managed
funds will become more pronounced over time as bonds in the middle
maturity range leave the portfolio.
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The average yield shift
for all indices was plus 5 bps. This was an anticipated consequence
of the upward shift in duration.
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Over the most recent
16 month period, the inclusion of the deleted bonds has had a
minimal impact on the performance and risk characteristics of
the published indices. It is anticipated however that as time
progresses the impact of deleted bonds will increase as they represent
a larger percentage of the total. For example, including deleted
bonds added 9.6% to the market value of the index in July 2001.
By October 2002 this impact had increased to 16.5%.
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For additional details
see the accompanying table.
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| CONCLUSION
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The Standard & Poor's
/ Investortools Municipal Bond Indices and their corresponding
portfolios are relatively new. Indices can be viewed at the websites
listed in this report. Basic supporting data and one year histories
for indices can be viewed at the same locations. Additional history
and more detailed statistics are also available.
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The changes to The
Standard & Poor's / Investortools Municipal Bond Indices monthly
deletion process are designed to produce an array of index portfolios
that are more representative and more replicable for municipal
fund managers. While there are no perfect benchmarks, it is anticipated
that these changes will create an index portfolio that more closely
mirrors the risk and performance characteristics of index users
and users of portfolio/index analytics.
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| Standard
& Poor's / Investortools - Municipal Bond Indices |
|
Comparative Analysis of July - 2001 Through August - 2002
Results |
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Revised Deletion Criteria vs. Limited Deletion Criteria * |
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Total |
Modified
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Opt
Adj |
Market |
Number |
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Return |
Duration |
Duration |
Yield |
Securities |
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MAIN
INDEX
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Average
|
0
bps |
0.10 |
0.15 |
5
bps |
(9,680) |
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Max
|
4
bps |
0.19 |
0.23 |
9
bps |
(7,663) |
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Min
|
-5
bps |
0.05 |
0.07 |
2
bps |
(11,974) |
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STATE
INDEXES (16)
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Average
|
0
bps |
0.09 |
0.12 |
5
bps |
(569) |
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Max
|
42
bps |
0.47 |
0.40 |
14
bps |
(76) |
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Min
|
-15
bps |
(0.06) |
(0.14) |
-4
bps |
(3,514) |
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SECTOR
INDEXES (11)
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Average
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0
bps |
0.08 |
0.12 |
4
bps |
(864) |
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Max
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8
bps |
0.26 |
0.34 |
19
bps |
(55) |
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Min
|
-23
bps |
(0.13) |
(0.08) |
-2
bps |
(6,229) |
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OTHER
INDEXES (5)
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Average
|
-1
bps |
(0.01) |
(0.00) |
3
bps |
(3,563) |
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Max
|
5
bps |
0.08 |
0.10 |
23
bps |
(194) |
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Min
|
-11
bps |
(0.10) |
(0.07) |
-2
bps |
(8,160) |
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Minimum
number of securities represent the total number of securities
deleted
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as
of Oct. - 2002 using the revised deletion process.
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*
See accompanying report.
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For more information,
please contact:
Mike
Maples of Standard & Poor's at 212 438-4425
or visit the Standard & Poor's website at www.spglobal.com.
Scott Bradley or Jack
Kee of Investortools at 630 553-0040
or visit the Investortools website at www.invtools.com.
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